Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3601…c8b3 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$2
other 14% $0
politics 12% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 30% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 23 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 23 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 4% -9.3%
all 53 -0.9% -10.3% 28% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage273d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $52 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $47 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $45 +$3 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $96 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $49 +$2 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $51 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $46 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $52 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $32 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $12 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $52 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $52 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $47 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $48 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.24 · official $51.24 (match) · 172 history records