trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 14% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | -22.9% | -30.2% | 29% | 4% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.2% | 4% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -36.9% | 4% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -43.0% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -48.6% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 89¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+44%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 22 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 22 | $70 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027? | Jun 22 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 08 | $678 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 08 | $280 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 08 | $270 | $0 | -0% |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 31 | $244 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 09 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 09 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nina Hoss win Best Supporting Performance at the 41st Film Indepe | Mar 07 | $2 | −$1 | -28% |
| Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this we | Feb 11 | $2 | −$2 | -80% |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 27 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump jail Elon Musk? | Jan 27 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first? | Oct 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Colombia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Oct 13 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| GPT transaction fees by December 31? | Aug 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? | Jun 26 | $6 | −$4 | -59% |
| Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? | Jun 26 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Tyson Fury KO Oleksandr Usyk? | Jan 13 | $3 | +$1 | +24% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Dec 20 | $440 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia | Nov 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| SAVE act becomes law before election? | Oct 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nelly Korda win Gold in Women's Golf? | Sep 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump in jail before election day? | Aug 10 | $132 | −$3 | -2% |