Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3602…b407 crypto 1074 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 455d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+0%) realized +$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%621W / 452L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$318
7 days−$318
14 days−$300
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$472
other 24% +$314
politics 11% −$75
world 8% +$104
sports 4% +$61
economics 3% +$98
finance 0% +$25
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -75.7% -78.0% 12% 12% -78.2%
≤30d 140 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 39% -18.9%
≤90d 552 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 35% -13.0%
all 1073 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 38% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% -9.4%
10% -21.9% 26% -18.1%
15% -29.4% 20% -26.0%
20% -36.4% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses621 / 452
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1073 / 1074
History coverage455d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1073 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $20 +$9 +45%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 13 $146 −$74 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $22 +$29 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$24 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $40 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $17 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $23 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $14 −$13 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $23 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 04 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $37 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$12 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $73 46h
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 29¢ $72 46h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 90¢ $40 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 58¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $17 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $12 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $9 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.57 · official $9.57 (match) · 3500 history records