Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3603…22ed sports 597 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,913 (+4%) realized +$1,812 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%289W / 301L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Fees−$668est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$460
7 days+$260
14 days+$1,847
30 days+$1,484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 52% -8.7%
≤30d 590 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 48% -6.9%
≤90d 590 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 48% -6.9%
all 590 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 48% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 48% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 43% -15.8%
15% -27.8% 38% -24.0%
20% -34.8% 32% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$57 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized+$1,812
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses289 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$668
Open positions4
Markets (closed)590 / 597
History coverage27d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 51¢ 58¢ $273 $314 +$40 (+15%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 72¢ $49 $75 +$26 (+52%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 19¢ 50¢ $21 $55 +$34 (+163%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 29¢ 30¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 247 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $444 +$129 +29%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $201 −$99 -49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $479 −$473 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $139 −$138 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $61 +$40 +66%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $86 +$27 +32%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 16 $149 +$51 +34%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $158 +$44 +28%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $63 +$37 +60%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $166 +$34 +21%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $156 +$84 +54%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $212 +$88 +42%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $198 −$73 -37%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $145 +$55 +38%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $83 +$17 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $16 +$84 +510%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $443 −$343 -77%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $309 +$109 +35%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $46 +$54 +119%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $71 +$29 +42%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $73 −$72 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $81 +$20 +24%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $118 −$18 -16%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $59 +$47 +79%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $240 −$10 -4%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $94 −$14 -15%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $73 −$72 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $196 +$62 +32%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $57 +$43 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $24 +$11 +46%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $240 −$37 -16%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $77 +$23 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $64 +$36 +57%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $42 +$6 +13%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $24 +$6 +27%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $245 −$145 -59%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $381 −$375 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 29¢ $31 26m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 18¢ $19 27m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 49¢ $50 50m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 52¢ $53 50m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 52¢ $53 50m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 52¢ $54 51m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 52¢ $54 51m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 36¢ $2 51m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 44¢ $15 53m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $50 56m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $309 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $55 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $397 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $59 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $56 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $53 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $53 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $46 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $46 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 76¢ $77 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 61¢ $63 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $50 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $27 8h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 17¢ $18 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $47 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 60¢ $61 12h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 23¢ $24 14h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 23¢ $24 14h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 47¢ $5 15h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 44¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.58 · official $427.85 · 1631 history records