Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3606…4f25 weather 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$638 (-13%) realized −$658 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,008per market
Trades / day118.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -31.1% -37.7% 0% 0% -37.7%
≤30d 1 -31.1% -37.7% 0% 0% -37.7%
≤90d 1 -31.1% -37.7% 0% 0% -37.7%
all 1 -31.1% -37.7% 0% 0% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 0% -37.7%
10% -43.6% 0% -43.6%
15% ← realistic here -49.1% 0% -49.1%
20% -54.1% 0% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
26.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$304 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,742
Realized−$658
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,008
Trades / day118.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $1,196 $1,243 +$47 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 91¢ 89¢ $730 $716 −$13 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 82¢ 84¢ $424 $436 +$12 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? No 93¢ 86¢ $372 $346 −$26 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $977 −$304 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $54 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $23 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $72 10m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $35 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $45 14m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $77 15m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $498 29m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $90 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $217 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $16 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $31 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $173 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $140 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $150 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $44 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $73 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,742.08 · official $2,742.08 (match) · 137 history records