Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x3606…96f1 sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$208 (+6%) realized +$205 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%28W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$294
14 days+$384
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$438
world 22% −$46
other 20% −$196
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +60.5% +45.2% 55% 55% +39.3%
≤30d 24 +25.2% +13.2% 46% 42% +12.6%
≤90d 28 +19.8% +8.4% 43% 39% +6.9%
all 61 +8.4% -1.9% 46% 44% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 44% -3.0%
10% -11.3% 43% -12.2%
15% -19.9% 41% -20.7%
20% -27.7% 31% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$32 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage207d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $108 $111 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 20 $117 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $35 +$82 +231%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $36 +$17 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $44 −$6 -14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $85 +$36 +43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$30 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $68 +$208 +307%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$10 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$59 +276%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$91 +178%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $51 +$48 +95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $51 −$40 -79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 +$105 +256%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $101 +$63 +62%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $102 −$76 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $678 −$16 -2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $40 −$37 -92%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $79 −$77 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $23 +$57 +249%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $20 +$10 +48%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Mar 01 $20 +$3 +14%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 27 $44 +$34 +77%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $80 −$11 -13%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $25 +$39 +157%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $25 +$18 +72%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $20 +$13 +67%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) Jan 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: CFU Gaming vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) Jan 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Yangon Galacticos (BO1) Jan 11 $10 +$27 +270%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: CG Esports vs Aurora Türkiye (BO1) Jan 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Jan 10 $10 −$1 -12%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs Aurora Türkiye (BO1) Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming vs Team Liquid PH (BO1) Jan 10 $28 +$12 +41%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Black Sentence Esports vs CFU Gaming (BO1) Jan 10 $10 +$20 +200%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $104 −$65 -63%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $47 −$46 -98%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 40¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $35 2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $38 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $36 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 71¢ $38 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 81¢ $44 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $122 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 69¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $276 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $68 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $142 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $51 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $99 16d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 50¢ $51 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.12 · official $111.15 (match) · 141 history records