Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x3607…c08b other 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 1148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,388 (-31%) realized −$2,291 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%80W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$691
14 days+$601
30 days+$601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$421
sports 24% −$58
politics 21% −$874
world 18% −$419
crypto 2% −$5
tech 2% −$56
finance 2% −$104
economics 1% −$38
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +61.7% +46.3% 40% 40% +76.5%
≤30d 39 +4.8% -5.2% 28% 26% +34.7%
≤90d 39 +4.8% -5.2% 28% 26% +34.7%
all 279 -32.1% -38.6% 29% 27% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 27% -35.4%
10% -44.4% 24% -41.6%
15% -49.8% 20% -47.2%
20% -54.7% 15% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1148d coverage
Net worth$932
Realized−$2,291
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses80 / 199
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions34
Markets (closed)279 / 313
History coverage1148d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 16¢ $75 $38 −$37 (-50%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$70 +170%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $15 +$41 +268%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$115 +559%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $289 +$438 +151%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$101 +331%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 −$20 -71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$266 +260%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +285%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $15 −$3 -21%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January? Jan 30 $97 +$41 +43%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jan 04 $50 −$20 -39%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 04 $25 −$13 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 18m
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $26 45m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $32 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 29h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 29h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 29h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 29h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 29h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 29h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 29h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 29h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 29h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 29h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 29h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 29h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 29h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 29h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 29h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 29h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 29h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 29h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 29h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $932.08 · official $932.09 (match) · 789 history records