Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3607…c427 sports 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$452 (-10%) realized −$500 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%85W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days−$72
14 days−$477
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$464
other 23% +$40
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +5.0% -5.0% 38% 38% -11.7%
≤30d 229 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 37% -19.7%
≤90d 229 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 37% -19.7%
all 229 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 37% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 37% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 37% -27.3%
15% -29.4% 35% -34.4%
20% -36.3% 31% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses85 / 144
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions9
Markets (closed)229 / 238
History coverage14d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $57 $78 +$21 (+37%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 27¢ 38¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+43%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 19¢ 33¢ $19 $33 +$14 (+74%)
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Czechia 11¢ 14¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+27%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Czechia 4¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 31¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $40 +$70 +176%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$12 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$37 +202%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$45 +152%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $12 +$25 +204%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$29 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$70 +238%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $25 +$29 +114%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $19 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $26 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 1h
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY Czechia 4¢ $10 1h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 11¢ $26 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $26 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $58 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $19 42h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $19 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $41 42h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 43h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $20 43h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $9 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $10 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $10 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 43h
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $9 43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 43h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 43h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $12 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $74 43h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $37 43h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $18 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.04 · official $281.04 (match) · 361 history records