Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x3608…f911 sports 333 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$51 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%161W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$80
sports 26% −$2
crypto 8% +$7
world 8% −$18
politics 3% −$3
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +25.5% +13.5% 71% 71% +14.7%
≤30d 14 +25.5% +13.5% 71% 71% +14.7%
≤90d 76 +3.3% -6.5% 54% 54% -8.7%
all 332 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 42% -10.4%
10% -19.8% 40% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 37% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses161 / 171
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)332 / 333
History coverage160d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 42¢ $42 $26 −$16 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +66%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $7 +$5 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$6 +46%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 +$14 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $9 +$10 +105%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$5 +52%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 02 $9 +$5 +57%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $14 +$5 +38%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $9 +$9 +97%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 24 $24 −$11 -48%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 23 $5 +$16 +313%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 23 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $25 +$15 +62%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $25 +$17 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $30 +$10 +33%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $15 −$7 -46%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$27 +132%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 20 $13 +$12 +92%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 20 $28 +$7 +23%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $13 +$12 +93%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $15 +$10 +67%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 17 $12 +$9 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $16 +$9 +57%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $13 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 24h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $15 32h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $7 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $18 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $28 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $14 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Mumbai Indians 90¢ $19 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Mumbai Indians 43¢ $9 47d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 47d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 47d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 48d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.73 · official $25.11 (match) · 1011 history records