Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3609…3a0b weather 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,836 (-4%) realized −$1,836 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%227W / 83L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$25
14 days−$1,859
30 days−$885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$709
other 17% +$129
sports 15% +$15
world 6% −$968
politics 3% −$401
finance 1% +$5
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.7% -8.0% 90% 10% -5.7%
≤30d 79 -7.8% -16.6% 71% 27% -18.7%
≤90d 173 -6.1% -15.0% 76% 20% -12.5%
all 310 -4.4% -13.5% 73% 34% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 34% -13.7%
10% -21.8% 26% -22.0%
15% -29.3% 16% -29.5%
20% -36.3% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$61 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$1,836
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses227 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions3
Markets (closed)310 / 313
History coverage237d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $157 $157 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? No 93¢ 90¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? No 96¢ 97¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $191 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $65 +$63 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Kento Shiogai: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$79 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $140 −$76 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $162 +$68 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $147 −$101 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3? Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 13 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22? Jun 13 $846 −$778 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$19 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $423 +$26 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $138 −$92 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 +$156 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $93 −$91 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $169 +$142 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $367 +$88 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $243 +$209 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $58 +$64 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $186 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $68 +$93 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $102 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$50 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $170 +$52 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $113 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? BUY No 96¢ $19 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $49 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $49 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $99 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $35 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $191 15h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $35 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $191 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $48 37h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY No 96¢ $96 38h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 38h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $11 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $11 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 49¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 10d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $9 10d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $7 10d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $7 10d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 94¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.77 · official $208.77 (match) · 1441 history records