Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
36 0x360a…44b5 crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%138W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$29
14 days+$2
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$118
other 4% −$8
sports 2% +$50
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +50.3% +36.0% 48% 43% +6.1%
≤30d 209 -0.4% -9.9% 66% 44% -12.2%
≤90d 209 -0.4% -9.9% 66% 44% -12.2%
all 209 -0.4% -9.9% 66% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 44% -12.2%
10% -18.5% 23% -20.6%
15% -26.4% 11% -28.2%
20% -33.6% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses138 / 71
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)209 / 213
History coverage28d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$29 +1418%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 31m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 32m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 33m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 34m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.63 · official $27.63 (match) · 499 history records