Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x360e…c462 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-26%) realized −$260 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$121
sports 23% −$80
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -47.3% -52.3% 19% 16% -50.2%
≤30d 31 -47.3% -52.3% 19% 16% -50.2%
≤90d 31 -47.3% -52.3% 19% 16% -50.2%
all 31 -47.3% -52.3% 19% 16% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.3% 16% -50.2%
10% ← realistic here -56.9% 16% -54.9%
15% -61.1% 6% -59.3%
20% -64.9% 3% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$260
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $31 $98 +$67 (+212%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $32 $30 −$3 (-9%)
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings Texas Super Kings 47¢ 69¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+46%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Sri Lanka 40¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+150%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $115 −$7 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $16 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +39%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $21 −$13 -65%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 -4%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 -10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $7 −$3 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $36 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $4 +$3 +73%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 21 $71 −$35 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 47¢ $18 36m
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 41m
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 40¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 60¢ $33 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 25¢ $14 2h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 9h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 9h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 10h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 23h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 23h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 23h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 24h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 29h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 29h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 31h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 31h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 32h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 32h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 32h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 32h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.73 · official $170.73 (match) · 117 history records