Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3610…ccd5 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$113 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 40% +$52
other 29% +$65
tech 28% +$75
sports 3% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.3% -28.8% 71% 29% -11.7%
≤30d 12 -21.9% -29.3% 67% 25% -30.2%
≤90d 18 -31.1% -37.7% 61% 17% -28.0%
all 36 -15.2% -23.3% 78% 19% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 19% -10.7%
10% -30.6% 3% -19.2%
15% -37.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -43.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$55 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage200d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $486 $543 +$57 (+12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$10 +26%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$4 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $64 −$24 -37%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $218 −$217 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $195 +$5 +2%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $50 +$9 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 06 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of February? Apr 22 $113 −$113 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Apr 22 $316 +$4 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $890 +$10 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 10 $128 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 10 $800 +$158 +20%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 28 $198 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of February? Feb 28 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 23 $60 −$41 -68%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 01 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $396 +$4 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $981 +$16 +2%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Jan 23 $895 +$15 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $298 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $1,085 +$10 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 01 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 01 $176 +$24 +14%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 20 $214 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 14h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $37 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $80 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $101 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 27d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 27d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 36d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $187 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $105 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $90 37d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $99 65d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $99 66d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $100 66d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $129 70d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $31 70d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $162 100d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $164 100d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $100 106d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $197 109d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $198 109d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $198 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $572.70 · official $572.70 (match) · 154 history records