Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3618…67af other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$6
other 30% +$3
politics 18% +$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 4% −$2
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 45% 0% -7.5%
all 66 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -8.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage457d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $62 +$4 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $8 +$1 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Jul 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 13 $10 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or below on July 12? Jul 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 11 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 10 $6 −$2 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $20 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $48 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $36 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $38 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $35 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $18 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 32d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 33d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.55 · official $42.55 (match) · 194 history records