Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x361a…bbac crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+0%) realized +$198 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%184W / 14L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$812per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$18
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$193
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 43 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 92 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 198 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,117) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×17.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1095.97 per $1 lost it wins $1095.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$1,191
Realized+$198
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses184 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage151d
Avg bet$812
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,192 $1,191 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,193 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,190 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 22? Jun 22 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,005 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,004 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 17? Jun 17 $386 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 17? Jun 17 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 15? Jun 15 $361 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 14? Jun 14 $316 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $363 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? Jun 11 $159 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $312 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 10? Jun 10 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $261 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 10? Jun 10 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 10? Jun 10 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,170 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,168 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,167 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,165 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 1? Jun 01 $291 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 1? Jun 01 $500 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $95 on May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,137 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on May 30? May 31 $235 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 on May 30? May 31 $255 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 30? May 31 $221 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $1,141 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 26 $1,140 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $1,126 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 23 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 22? May 22 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $1,134 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? May 19 $1,133 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 18? May 18 $402 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,193 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,193 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $192 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $999 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,190 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,004 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $181 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,185 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,183 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $33 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $106 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $386 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $361 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $301 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $299 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $363 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $282 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $316 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $199 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $68 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $139 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $67 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,191.21 · official $1,191.21 (match) · 525 history records