Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x361a…ea72 crypto 525 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$587 (-5%) realized −$586 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%341W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$218
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$550
sports 13% −$130
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -4.7% -13.8% 78% 36% -12.4%
≤30d 327 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 39% -12.8%
≤90d 327 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 39% -12.8%
all 521 -6.2% -15.1% 65% 39% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 39% -14.8%
10% -23.2% 21% -23.0%
15% -30.7% 15% -30.4%
20% -37.5% 11% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$586
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses341 / 180
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)521 / 525
History coverage138d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $18 $22 +$3 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $112 −$31 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $71 −$22 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $70 −$15 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.20 · official $44.20 (match) · 1201 history records