Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x361b…74fe
other · 34 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$24,125 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25,669 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$874
Realized−$25,669
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,215
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3,269
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%
Chart Positions 2 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26,891
7 days−$25,669
14 days−$25,669
30 days−$25,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $862 $863 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Yes $8 $12 +$3 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $490 −$490 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $128 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $155 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $306 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $463 +$20 +4%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $609 +$88 +14%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2,366 +$313 +13%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4,010 +$518 +13%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5,373 +$589 +11%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $7,684 +$24,027 +313%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $610 −$598 -98%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $8,635 −$8,635 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,501 +$1,356 +90%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $545 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $538 +$14 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $529 +$24 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $545 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $522 +$33 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $498 +$60 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $957 −$957 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $228 −$228 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $856 −$856 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $35,884 −$29,065 -81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10,117 −$10,117 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $338 +$82 +24%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10,887 −$3,098 -28%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $605 +$65 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $13,485 +$2,555 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$17,561
other 28% −$8,104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $483 6h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 6h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 16¢ $4,685 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 26¢ $153 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 25¢ $447 10h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti $2,995 11h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 17¢ $924 11h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 17¢ $957 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $984 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $517 13h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti $1,222 14h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 34¢ $3,494 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 90¢ $72 19h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 90¢ $1,172 19h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 89¢ $104 19h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 89¢ $944 19h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 96¢ $332 19h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 90¢ $956 19h
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 99¢ $128 19h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 87¢ $609 19h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 96¢ $155 19h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 90¢ $457 19h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 90¢ $722 19h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 88¢ $527 19h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 88¢ $219 19h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 88¢ $291 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 34% -30.6%
≤30d 32 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 34% -30.6%
≤90d 32 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 34% -30.6%
all 32 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 34% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 34% -30.6%
10% -31.4% 12% -37.2%
15% ← realistic here -38.0% 9% -43.3%
20% -44.1% 6% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $874.47 · official $874.47 (match) · 159 history records