Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x361c…1aee other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate65%59W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$121
14 days+$150
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$190
sports 18% −$143
other 9% +$13
world 1% −$4
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 28% -6.4%
≤30d 56 -5.7% -14.7% 61% 30% -5.9%
≤90d 56 -5.7% -14.7% 61% 30% -5.9%
all 91 -5.0% -14.0% 65% 26% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 26% -8.5%
10% -22.3% 12% -17.3%
15% -29.8% 5% -25.3%
20% -36.7% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses59 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage167d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $305 +$61 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $204 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $403 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $292 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $128 −$22 -17%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 29 $56 −$26 -46%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 29 $22 −$7 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $107 +$4 +4%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 29 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers Jun 29 $274 −$100 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $310 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $203 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $307 +$41 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $111 +$12 +10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 +$9 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $57 +$95 +165%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $9 +$2 +27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 $0 +6%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $366 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 449 history records