Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x361c…5ca4 other 61 markets active 5h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$11
politics 14% −$8
other 4% +$3
sports 2% −$84
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.8% 0% 0% -23.6%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 46 -9.6% -18.2% 17% 7% -16.8%
all 60 -5.2% -14.2% 20% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -10.0%
10% -22.4% 7% -18.7%
15% -29.9% 7% -26.5%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage614d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$3 +48%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 10 $22 −$22 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 09 $25 $0 +1%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 30 $24 +$12 +52%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $51 $0 +1%
Wild vs. Blackhawks Mar 23 $22 +$13 +61%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 17 $24 +$34 +138%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $95 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 5h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 25h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 31h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $7 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.81 · official $29.81 (match) · 287 history records