Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x361f…06af world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$7
politics 20% $0
other 18% $0
sports 10% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.8% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 10 +16.7% +5.6% 30% 10% -7.1%
≤90d 10 +16.7% +5.6% 30% 10% -7.1%
all 34 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 3% -8.5%
10% -14.4% 3% -17.3%
15% -22.6% 3% -25.3%
20% -30.2% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage274d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $62 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 +$8 +175%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $8 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hurry Up Tomorrow by The Weeknd be the top Spotify album for 2025 Dec 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $1 $0 -10%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $18 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $12 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $12 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $28 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $21 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $29 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $13 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $16 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.26 · official $35.26 (match) · 179 history records