Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3621…ae2f crypto 1724 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,905 (-9%) realized −$1,905 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate76%1302W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day74.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$368
14 days−$302
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 914 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 40% -15.9%
≤30d 1721 -0.7% -10.2% 76% 23% -10.8%
≤90d 1721 -0.7% -10.2% 76% 23% -10.8%
all 1721 -0.7% -10.2% 76% 23% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 23% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 21% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 21% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,905
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1302 / 419
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1721 / 1724
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day74.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 280 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 3500 history records