Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x3622…148b crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%43W / 11L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$1
other 32% $0
tech 16% +$1
politics 6% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.2% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses43 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage501d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $39 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $34 $0 +1%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 05 $1 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Connor McDavid win the Hart Trophy? Apr 10 $26 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $48 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 20 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 63d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 63d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 92d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $29 151d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $17 181d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $39 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $38 212d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 241d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 242d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $34 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 301d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 334d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 367d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.45 · official $56.45 (match) · 113 history records