Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3626…2b94 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 16% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage451d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $21 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 +3%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? May 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $5 $0 -9%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $17 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $17 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $21 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.69 · official $32.20 (match) · 88 history records