Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3626…cb83 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate28%25W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$8
other 28% +$1
sports 15% +$1
politics 14% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 3% −$1
crypto 1% −$8
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 75 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 1% -9.6%
all 88 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses25 / 63
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage338d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $99 +$2 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $167 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $15 −$4 -27%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $167 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $227 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $142 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $240 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $112 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $6 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $92 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $195 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $80 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $80 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $164 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $5 $0 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $172 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $336 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $178 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $182 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $78 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $119 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $81 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $129 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $77 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $77 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $80 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $79 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $79 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $80 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $79 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $71 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $80 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $81 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $75 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $76 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $87 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $87 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $87 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $87 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.84 · official $78.81 (match) · 364 history records