Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3628…cf8a
crypto · 155 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$57 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$57 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses128 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage34d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals Punjab Kings 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $185 +$5 +3%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $62 +$2 +3%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $389 +$6 +2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $202 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $201 +$10 +5%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $4 $0 -5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $201 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $101 +$11 +11%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 14 $110 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 14 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 12 $3 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 12 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 38% −$7
other 32% +$34
sports 29% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 26h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $11 27h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 7d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $190 12d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 97¢ $185 12d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 17d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 18d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 19d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians SELL Kolkata Knight Riders 94¢ $107 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 88¢ $23 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 88¢ $77 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians SELL Kolkata Knight Riders 88¢ $88 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 88¢ $0 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 88¢ $43 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 88¢ $45 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians SELL Kolkata Knight Riders 87¢ $107 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 81¢ $101 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians SELL Kolkata Knight Riders 80¢ $94 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $55 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $27 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $6 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $2 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 29 -4.5% -13.6% 83% 7% -7.3%
≤90d 154 -2.7% -11.9% 83% 16% -8.2%
all 154 -2.7% -11.9% 83% 16% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 16% -8.2%
10% -20.4% 8% -17.0%
15% -28.1% 6% -25.0%
20% -35.1% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.89 · official $10.89 (match) · 481 history records