Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x362a…842b politics 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% $0
world 25% −$1
other 22% +$1
sports 7% $0
finance 6% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 41 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage303d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $40 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $40 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Sep 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 29 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $22 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $36 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $15 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $27 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $41 27h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $1 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $23 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $37 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $41 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $41 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $41 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records