Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x362b…2d02 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,055 (-44%) realized −$1,055 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$510
14 days−$944
30 days−$1,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$527
sports 35% −$458
other 13% −$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.4% +5.3% 33% 33% -53.7%
≤30d 10 +2.2% -7.6% 40% 40% -58.8%
≤90d 10 +2.2% -7.6% 40% 40% -58.8%
all 10 +2.2% -7.6% 40% 40% -58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 40% -58.8%
10% -16.4% 30% -62.7%
15% -24.5% 30% -66.3%
20% -31.9% 20% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$272 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,055
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage18d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $182 −$174 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $436 −$119 -27%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $99 +$39 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 +$63 +386%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET Jun 07 $434 −$434 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $582 −$582 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $153 +$22 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $182 +$199 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $53 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $139 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $137 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $99 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $80 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $67 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $69 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $317 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $296 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $80 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $87 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 32¢ $72 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 32¢ $102 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka SELL Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $175 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 77¢ $153 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 33¢ $102 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 32¢ $102 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 41¢ $102 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $102 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records