Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x362b…bfa3 other 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%25W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$3
other 24% −$4
sports 23% −$5
crypto 11% −$8
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$2
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 190 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses25 / 165
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage173d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $133 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 01 $114 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Apr 30 $24 $0 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $153 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $133 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 17 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 15 $87 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 13 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $65 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 12 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $32 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $32 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $19 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $19 12d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $25 25d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $25 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $21 39d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $21 40d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $33 56d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $33 56d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $32 56d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $32 56d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $20 56d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $20 57d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $20 57d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $20 57d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $21 57d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $21 57d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 95¢ $23 57d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $24 57d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $33 60d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $33 60d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $29 60d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $29 60d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $27 60d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $27 60d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $25 60d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $25 60d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $2 60d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 733 history records