Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x362b…fb9a crypto 899 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,070 (+5%) realized +$1,067 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%444W / 452L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$850
14 days−$2,553
30 days−$1,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$300
sports 11% +$91
other 8% +$165
world 0% +$5
finance 0% −$5
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +0.8% -8.8% 61% 58% +22.2%
≤30d 627 -26.0% -33.1% 43% 40% -18.3%
≤90d 896 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 47% -7.1%
all 896 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 47% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 31% -16.0%
15% -25.4% 25% -24.1%
20% -32.7% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$1,067
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses444 / 452
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)896 / 899
History coverage86d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 896 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 84¢ 99¢ $20 $23 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$7 +53%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$28 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$33 -69%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $116 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$13 -82%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$39 +63%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $30 43m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $30 44m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $20 46m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $20 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 97¢ $60 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $40 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $59 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $40 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $12 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $13 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $62 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $40 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.14 · official $122.15 (match) · 2705 history records