Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x362c…bf29 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,598 (-1%) realized −$1,597 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$960per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$23
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,539
politics 38% −$59
sports 11% −$68
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$3
world 2% +$52
culture 2% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -2.0% -11.4% 5% 0% -10.7%
all 138 -5.7% -14.7% 18% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 8% -10.6%
10% -22.9% 8% -19.2%
15% -30.3% 8% -27.0%
20% -37.2% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,264) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,600
Realized−$1,597
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage159d
Avg bet$960
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $848 $847 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $753 $753 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,975 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,495 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $913 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,644 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $592 +$1 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $4,811 −$6 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,785 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 01 $1,018 +$2 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $2,388 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $3,220 −$3 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,468 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,405 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,506 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4,684 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,052 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $1,167 −$1,167 -100%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $89 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $42 −$10 -25%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $975 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $848 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $753 24h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,265 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,267 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,473 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,205 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,206 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $913 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $913 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,442 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,444 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,168 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,548 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,550 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,287 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,288 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,600.01 · official $1,600.01 (match) · 441 history records