Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
36 0x362c…f753 sports 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,619 (-0%) realized −$1,715 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%794W / 28L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$699per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5,091now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$1,844
14 days−$1,132
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,952
other 16% +$498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -7.1% -15.9% 90% 6% -11.1%
≤30d 426 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 822 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 2% -9.8%
all 822 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,099) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$221 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$5,091
Realized−$1,715
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses794 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions5
Markets (closed)822 / 824
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$699
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 822 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 100¢ $2,045 $2,100 +$55 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $1,872 $1,904 +$33 (+2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $595 $600 +$5 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $413 $416 +$3 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $70 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,293 +$10 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,100 +$11 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $493 +$7 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,013 +$20 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,391 +$8 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,094 +$6 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $988 +$2 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,442 +$11 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,194 +$6 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $197 +$3 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $394 +$6 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,418 +$4 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,109 +$2 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,330 +$3 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $111 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4,917 +$169 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $677 +$33 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,743 +$37 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2,399 +$26 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,243 +$13 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,436 +$52 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,308 +$3 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $405 +$8 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,815 +$28 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,082 +$52 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $339 +$11 +3%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $89 −$26 -30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,109 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,107 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $392 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $307 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,807 +$18 +1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC Jun 14 $967 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $187 −$187 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,883 +$41 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,336 +$67 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $815 +$106 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $176 +$22 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $197 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $70 15m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $494 18m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $142 24m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $486 24m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $485 26m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 26m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $48 26m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $18 26m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $22 27m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $8 27m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $3 28m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $94 28m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $194 30m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $208 33m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $497 36m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $282 39m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $12 43m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $250 45m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $41 46m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $44 49m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $40 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $90 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $19 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $194 55m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $194 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $199 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $183 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $198 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $198 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,090.86 · official $5,093.10 (match) · 3500 history records