Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x362f…3113 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$212 (-23%) realized −$211 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$242
other 18% $0
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -42.4% -47.8% 0% 0% -47.8%
≤30d 1 -42.4% -47.8% 0% 0% -47.8%
≤90d 1 -42.4% -47.8% 0% 0% -47.8%
all 1 -42.4% -47.8% 0% 0% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.8% 0% -47.8%
10% ← realistic here -52.8% 0% -52.8%
15% -57.4% 0% -57.4%
20% -61.6% 0% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$242 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $161 $160 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 15 $572 −$242 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $164 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 27¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 2¢ $21 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $95 46h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $168 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $110 46h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $395 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $169 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.27 · official $340.27 · 27 history records