Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3630…3f8f crypto 425 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,724 (-57%) realized −$4,723 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%181W / 634L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day75.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,033
7 days−$4,033
14 days−$4,036
30 days−$4,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$602
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 406 -97.7% -97.9% 1% 1% -99.8%
≤90d 815 -51.2% -55.9% 22% 21% -42.1%
all 815 -51.2% -55.9% 22% 21% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.9% 21% -42.1%
10% ← realistic here -60.1% 20% -47.7%
15% -63.9% 13% -52.7%
20% -67.5% 9% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$4,723
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses181 / 634
Open positions1
Markets (closed)815 / 425
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 815 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.22 · official $11.22 (match) · 3500 history records