Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

36 0x3633…0040 sports 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$63 (+27%) realized +$53 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+31.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+45.4%	+31.5%	100%	100%	+34.0%
≤90d	2	+45.4%	+31.5%	100%	100%	+34.0%
all	2	+45.4%	+31.5%	100%	100%	+34.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.5%	100%	+34.0%
10%	+19.0%	50%	+21.2%
15%	+7.5%	50%	+9.5%
20%	-3.1%	50%	-1.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$29 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$120

Realized+$53

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage17d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	69¢	76¢	$110	$120	+$10 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals	Jun 12	$54	+$10	+18%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$66	+$48	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	75¢	$52	16m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	65¢	$63	1h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY Texas Rangers	78¢	$2	16d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY Texas Rangers	81¢	$52	16d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$40	17d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$26	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.03 · official $120.03 (match) · 8 history records