Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3635…1a4d crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,205 (+9%) realized +$3,205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%21W / 67L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$4,774
sports 4% −$654
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -58.7% -62.6% 18% 18% -71.4%
≤30d 88 -21.6% -29.0% 24% 23% -24.3%
≤90d 88 -21.6% -29.0% 24% 23% -24.3%
all 88 -21.6% -29.0% 24% 23% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 23% -24.3%
10% -35.8% 23% -31.5%
15% -42.0% 23% -38.1%
20% -47.7% 22% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$575) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$927 vs −$371 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses21 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage15d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $668 −$639 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $350 +$318 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $731 −$693 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $947 −$905 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $686 −$650 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $687 −$650 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $683 −$650 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $745 −$55 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $584 −$55 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $528 −$528 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $945 −$900 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $317 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $836 −$339 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $627 +$658 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $951 −$900 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $779 −$741 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $634 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$62 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$37 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $606 −$573 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $319 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $394 −$373 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $319 +$906 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $395 −$373 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $406 +$346 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $604 −$573 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $387 +$618 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $116 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $634 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $632 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $423 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $208 −$198 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $153 +$63 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $200 −$188 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $183 −$174 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $251 +$517 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $317 −$300 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $301 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $367 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $668 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $343 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $85 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $128 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $518 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $58 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $210 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $248 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $431 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $373 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $313 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $315 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $373 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $164 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $519 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $59 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2,928 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $293 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $348 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $339 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $58 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $175 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1,438 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $211 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $315 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $213 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $315 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records