Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
36 0x3637…43c8 sports 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,315 (+19%) realized +$3,334 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%250W / 17L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,122
7 days+$3,339
14 days+$3,339
30 days+$3,339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,880
other 31% +$434
crypto 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 5% +8.7%
≤30d 211 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 5% +8.7%
≤90d 218 +2.5% -7.3% 98% 5% +8.6%
all 267 +2.1% -7.7% 94% 4% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 4% +8.3%
10% -16.5% 2% -2.1%
15% -24.6% 1% -11.5%
20% -32.0% 0% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×17.6 per $1 lost it wins $17.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$3,334
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses250 / 17
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage552d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Chicago Sky 98¢ 60¢ $49 $30 −$19 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $119 +$10 +9%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $49 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $24 $0 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $49 $0 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $88 +$11 +12%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $49 +$1 +1%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $49 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals Jun 20 $341 +$59 +17%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $94 +$3 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals Jun 20 $76 +$4 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $341 +$59 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-5.5) Jun 20 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $196 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $44 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Marcinko vs Waltert Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Navarro vs Golubic Jun 20 $56 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Arevalo/Pavic vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 98¢ $49 8m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $49 23m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $30 23m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $17 24m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $32 24m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 24m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 85¢ $25 25m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 90¢ $45 25m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 98¢ $49 25m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 25m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL No 100¢ $24 48m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $24 50m
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma SELL Christian Rodriguez 99¢ $49 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 98¢ $49 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Cleveland Guardians 99¢ $20 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Cleveland Guardians 99¢ $30 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $81 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 97¢ $49 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 88¢ $44 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 88¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $44 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $20 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $30 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 98¢ $49 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.77 · official $49.75 · 895 history records