Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363b…006a politics 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$131 (+2%) realized +$136 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%24W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$505
14 days+$273
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$178
world 23% +$2
politics 21% −$54
tech 9% +$1
economics 5% −$6
finance 3% −$30
culture 3% −$15
sports 1% +$27
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.0% +16.7% 27% 18% +54.3%
≤30d 33 -12.9% -21.2% 15% 9% +5.8%
≤90d 83 -12.8% -21.1% 23% 6% -6.1%
all 97 -10.8% -19.3% 25% 8% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 8% -7.5%
10% -27.1% 7% -16.3%
15% -34.1% 6% -24.4%
20% -40.6% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$9 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses24 / 73
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage158d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $404 $408 +$3 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $112 $108 −$4 (-3%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $213 +$297 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $151 −$148 -98%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $12 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Jun 23 $21 $0 -2%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $6 $0 -4%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $44 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $123 +$357 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $234 −$230 -98%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $20 −$2 -12%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 07 $28 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 05 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 02 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 02 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 02 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $9 $0 -3%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May? May 29 $6 −$5 -70%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 29 $35 $0 -1%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 23 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $106 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 22 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 18 $11 −$8 -69%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 16 $66 −$1 -1%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 16 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $32 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 15 $97 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Knicks May 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $409 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $115 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $115 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $151 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $213 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 3d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl SELL No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $41 3d
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 87¢ $43 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 3d
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 85¢ $42 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 3d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 12¢ $6 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 3d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 12¢ $6 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 3d
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 89¢ $44 3d
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 89¢ $44 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $123 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $234 7d
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.51 · official $519.51 (match) · 438 history records