Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363b…6ff7 weather 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$44 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$65
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$108
politics 15% −$70
sports 3% +$57
other 2% +$29
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.0% +3.2% 54% 46% -15.7%
≤30d 29 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 48% -11.0%
≤90d 45 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 40% -12.1%
all 45 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 40% -12.1%
10% -30.5% 31% -20.5%
15% -37.2% 22% -28.2%
20% -43.4% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage69d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Yes 67¢ 51¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $174 −$33 -19%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $65 +$57 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 −$23 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$37 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$7 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +227%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$18 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $164 −$111 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $123 +$171 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$21 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $154 −$124 -80%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $325 −$43 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $252 +$38 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $201 +$28 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $166 +$86 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $101 +$31 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $8 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? May 21 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 17? May 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $2 +$5 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17? May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9? May 09 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 07 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 21 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 20 $27 −$19 -69%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $5 −$3 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 14m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 31¢ $38 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 82¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 61¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $122 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $65 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $93 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $17 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $111 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 8¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $102 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $62 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 36¢ $53 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.62 · official $75.62 (match) · 117 history records