Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363b…958f politics 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,297 (+1%) realized +$1,298 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%24W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$1,389per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days+$25
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$124
other 37% +$1,490
sports 12% −$97
world 2% −$4
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +4.8% -5.2% 11% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 117 -7.6% -16.4% 9% 5% -10.0%
all 149 +0.6% -9.0% 16% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 11% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 11% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 10% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,110) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$11 · ×9.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized+$1,298
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses24 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,389
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $356 $355 −$1 (-0%)
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $311 $311 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $3,282 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,118 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,459 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,308 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,610 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,051 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $2,276 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,064 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $86 +$63 +73%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,213 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $68 +$71 +105%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,887 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $2,128 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,110 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $3,814 −$6 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,071 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,252 −$4 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $46 +$51 +109%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,266 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,050 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $2,331 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 19 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $2,695 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $5,294 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,373 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $4,037 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $311 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $694 40h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $695 42h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $889 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $890 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $846 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $848 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 3d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $688 3d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $689 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $356 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,164 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,166 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,263 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,266 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,273 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,274 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,264 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $815 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,097 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,147 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,149 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.98 · official $665.98 (match) · 507 history records