Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363c…900d crypto 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$205 (+7%) realized +$222 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%112W / 48L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$298
14 days+$197
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$139
sports 2% +$49
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +5.0% -5.0% 70% 54% +0.8%
≤30d 160 +4.5% -5.5% 70% 54% -3.0%
≤90d 160 +4.5% -5.5% 70% 54% -3.0%
all 160 +4.5% -5.5% 70% 54% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 54% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 38% -12.2%
15% -22.8% 27% -20.7%
20% -30.4% 18% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$222
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses112 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage10d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $90 +$109 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $89 −$34 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S Jun 18 $7 +$15 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $83 +$24 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$166 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$37 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $161 +$144 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.39 · official $2.67 (match) · 721 history records