Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363c…3786 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-9%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$42
other 6% −$22
world 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +81.0% +63.7% 100% 100% +64.7%
≤30d 5 +8.6% -1.8% 60% 60% +9.0%
≤90d 64 -29.1% -35.8% 36% 34% -22.1%
all 71 -23.2% -30.6% 39% 38% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 38% -17.0%
10% -37.2% 38% -25.0%
15% -43.3% 38% -32.2%
20% -48.8% 34% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage106d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$21 +64%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 09 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 29 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 27 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 27 $20 +$14 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$27 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 24 $34 +$32 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 23 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 23 $50 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 23 $40 +$21 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 23 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 23 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 23 $20 +$37 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 33m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $54 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $22 18d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.38 · official $98.38 (match) · 125 history records