Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x363e…928a
weather · 1119 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$28 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$60 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$118
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses702 / 353
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions64
Markets (closed)1055 / 1119
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 64 History 1055 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 82¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? No 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? No 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 91¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? No 84¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 83¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 92¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 82¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 81¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? No 91¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 86¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? No 88¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? No 93¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ 73¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? No 95¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 85% −$7
other 7% −$18
sports 6% −$24
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 74¢ $1 2m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 72¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL No 65¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 75¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 84¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 62¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 85¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 74¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 58¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 95¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 398 +1.4% -8.2% 61% 31% -10.2%
≤30d 848 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 27% -10.7%
≤90d 1055 -0.7% -10.1% 67% 25% -11.8%
all 1055 -0.7% -10.1% 67% 25% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 25% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 5% -20.2%
15% -26.6% 2% -27.9%
20% -33.8% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.31 · official $118.31 (match) · 3500 history records