Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3640…4a63 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%17W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 85% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 85% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 85% 10% -9.8%
all 20 +0.3% -9.3% 85% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 10% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$72 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses17 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $302 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $218 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $304 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $302 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $424 −$119 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $546 +$56 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $111 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$91 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $101 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $101 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $101 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $101 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records