Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3642…74ea sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$365 (+6%) realized +$365 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$484
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -22.7% -30.0% 56% 20% -2.2%
≤30d 25 -22.7% -30.0% 56% 20% -2.2%
≤90d 25 -22.7% -30.0% 56% 20% -2.2%
all 25 -22.7% -30.0% 56% 20% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 20% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 4% -11.6%
15% -42.9% 4% -20.1%
20% -48.5% 0% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$16 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.71 per $1 lost it wins $3.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $712 +$147 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1,465 +$167 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 +$2 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$6 +22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $600 +$41 +7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $600 +$31 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 +$3 +7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $500 +$197 +39%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $250 +$10 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $305 −$28 -9%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $27 −$5 -18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $402 +$48 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$2 +4%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $272 −$36 -13%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $250 +$5 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $250 −$4 -2%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$20 -81%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 81¢ $160 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $300 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 71¢ $350 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $49 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $350 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $350 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $76 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $23 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $112 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $28 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $207 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 89¢ $111 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 87¢ $217 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 87¢ $85 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $42 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $450 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $300 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $300 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $300 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $300 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 51¢ $104 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 39¢ $29 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 39¢ $9 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 39¢ $200 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 39¢ $3 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 39¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 39¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records