Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3644…98ba politics 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$988 (+1%) realized +$989 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%31W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,235per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$183
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$73
politics 41% −$111
sports 12% +$1,070
economics 2% −$4
world 2% −$39
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -5.8% -14.7% 8% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 89 -12.8% -21.1% 7% 3% -9.3%
all 145 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 11% -9.0%
10% -18.4% 11% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 10% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,654) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$9 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$730
Realized+$989
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,235
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $505 $504 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $225 $225 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,433 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,270 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,516 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,456 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $592 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,812 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,039 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,120 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,456 −$7 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,977 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $251 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $288 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,960 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $335 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,370 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $506 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $70 +$55 +79%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,071 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $617 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,789 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,787 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $3,269 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,607 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $3,217 −$4 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,928 −$4 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $505 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $413 2h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $414 4h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $522 22h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $522 25h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $459 30h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 31h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $523 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $524 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $412 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $413 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $507 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $508 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $500 4d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $501 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $225 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $576 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $577 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $697 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $698 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $708 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $709 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $567 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $567 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $591 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $592 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $621 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $622 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $570 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $571 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.54 · official $729.54 (match) · 490 history records