Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3648…fc70 sports 92 markets active 3d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%45W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$34
14 days−$96
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$314
crypto 35% −$348
other 8% +$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -49.5% -54.4% 22% 22% +0.6%
≤30d 26 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 31% -11.7%
≤90d 45 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 33% -8.8%
all 88 -7.1% -15.9% 51% 44% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 44% -10.0%
10% -24.0% 36% -18.6%
15% -31.3% 28% -26.5%
20% -38.1% 18% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses45 / 43
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage108d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $7 −$5 -74%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $232 +$40 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$24 +117%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $440 −$4 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $362 +$18 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $409 −$2 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Jun 09 $4 +$5 +125%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $814 −$30 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $5 +$2 +34%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $101 +$23 +23%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $33 +$10 +30%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $2 +$6 +291%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $5 +$3 +54%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $253 +$132 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $203 +$50 +25%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $25 +$18 +72%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $264 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 12 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-07? May 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 12 $15 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs RED Canids (BO3) - Circuit X Pantanal Cuiabá Pla May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 12 $240 −$134 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $20 +$46 +226%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $54 +$8 +15%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $353 +$69 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 08 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 07 $325 −$302 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$5 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 9¢ $2 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 4¢ $1 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 56¢ $44 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 25¢ $20 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 4¢ $10 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $6 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $7 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 85¢ $90 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $192 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 36¢ $102 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 60¢ $30 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 37¢ $16 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $40 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $10 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 98¢ $388 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.53 · official $167.53 (match) · 352 history records