Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x364a…b9ab world 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$26
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$8
other 37% +$17
sports 14% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 12 -15.5% -23.5% 58% 0% -9.4%
all 12 -15.5% -23.5% 58% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -30.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -37.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -43.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage86d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 27 $373 +$4 +1%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 27 $378 +$2 +0%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Jun 20 $299 $0 +0%
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assists Jun 14 $485 +$15 +3%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 14 $480 +$5 +1%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $461 +$39 +8%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $460 $0 +0%
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) May 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 21 $380 −$1 -0%
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5) Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $205 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $377 21m
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $373 1h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL No 98¢ $380 1h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 97¢ $378 5h
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $299 7d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $299 7d
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assists BUY No 97¢ $485 13d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $485 13d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $480 13d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $461 25d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $460 25d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $460 25d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY FC St. Pauli 1910 $24 55d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY FC St. Pauli 1910 $22 55d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 55d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 55d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 55d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 55d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL No 98¢ $379 67d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $282 70d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $99 70d
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5) BUY Brisbane Roar FC $7 86d
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5) BUY Brisbane Roar FC $7 86d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $103 86d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $103 86d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $205 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records