Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x364a…ee3b sports 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% $0
politics 26% −$5
other 22% −$3
world 8% −$2
economics 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 122 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage155d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $50 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $169 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $263 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $426 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $312 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $161 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $56 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $180 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $142 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Feb 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $121 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 20 $56 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $39 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $39 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $50 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $50 24d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 38d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 38d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 119d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 119d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 119d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 119d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $16 119d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $32 119d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $33 119d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $35 119d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 119d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $45 119d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $45 119d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 95¢ $52 119d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $52 119d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $49 119d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $49 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $49 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $49 119d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 583 history records