Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x364a…cbe1 crypto 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$753 (-9%) realized −$754 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%131W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day270.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$18
14 days−$315
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$289
world 2% −$15
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -0.3% -9.8% 74% 57% -11.1%
≤30d 244 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 35% -12.9%
≤90d 244 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 35% -12.9%
all 244 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 35% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover270.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 35% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 16% -21.3%
15% -28.1% 9% -28.9%
20% -35.2% 6% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses131 / 113
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day270.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 83¢ 88¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.06 · official $7.61 (match) · 3500 history records