Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x364b…bb21 other 367 markets active 6h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%241W / 116L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$39
14 days+$41
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$4
other 33% +$6
sports 13% +$36
world 9% +$3
culture 3% −$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +20.8% +9.3% 67% 67% +1.8%
≤30d 120 +9.4% -1.0% 66% 63% -2.0%
≤90d 144 +3.6% -6.3% 64% 62% -3.8%
all 357 +3.9% -6.0% 68% 64% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 64% -8.4%
10% -15.0% 45% -17.1%
15% -23.2% 24% -25.1%
20% -30.7% 15% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses241 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)357 / 367
History coverage326d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 77¢ 80¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Senegal 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $3 +$1 +36%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $7 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +17%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 +$2 +36%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$6 +30%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$1 +26%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$6 +550%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$7 +650%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1 +$4 +388%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 +$4 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $10 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 78¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $5 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $3 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $18 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $7 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 81¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 6h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $10 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $2 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 31h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $10 31h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.97 · official $70.97 (match) · 737 history records